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Market Scenario
Scroll and absorption chillers market was valued at US$ 13.54 billion in 2024 and is projected to hit the market valuation of US$ 21.81 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 4.89% during the forecast period 2025–2033.
Key Findings in Scroll and Absorption Chillers Market
The global scroll and absorption chillers market is navigating a period of profound change. A powerful convergence of stringent environmental regulations, intense geopolitical pressures, and transformative technological demands is reshaping the industry. The primary catalyst for change is a wave of environmental regulation creating a "forced replacement" cycle. In the United States, the AIM Act's 40% cut in HFC production for 2024 has caused the price of legacy R-410A refrigerant to soar. A simple repair on an older chiller can now become a major financial liability. Europe's F-Gas regulation is even more definitive, setting a 2027 deadline for new chillers to use refrigerants with a GWP below 750. These are not suggestions; they are market-altering mandates that make retaining old equipment a costly and risky proposition.
Leading manufacturers across the scroll and absorption chillers market are capitalizing on these regulatory tailwinds. Trane Technologies has embraced the transition, making low-GWP refrigerants a cornerstone of its brand and enforcing a January 1, 2025, deadline for its commercial product lines. Their strategy transforms regulatory compliance into a competitive advantage. Johnson Controls is playing a different game, focusing on the intelligence layer with its OpenBlue platform. By providing quantifiable outcomes, such as a 67% reduction in maintenance costs, they shift the customer conversation from hardware to long-term operational value. Daikin leverages its deep vertical integration, using its in-house production of R-32 refrigerant and compressors to control its destiny. Having sold over 21 million R-32 units, their technology choice has achieved critical mass, creating a powerful market moat.
However, executing these strategies is fraught with external challenges. Supply chain stability has become a paramount concern in the scroll and absorption chillers market. The volatility of steel prices, fluctuating from over $1,600 to under $850 per ton, wreaks havoc on financial planning. Geopolitical tensions surrounding key materials, like the R-125 refrigerant component from China, have exposed deep vulnerabilities. In response, a strategic shift toward resilience is occurring. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which has already boosted clean energy manufacturing investment by 305%, provides powerful incentives for companies to reshore production. At a micro level, engineers are redesigning control systems to be flexible, accepting components from multiple suppliers to insulate against future shocks.
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Digital Ecosystems and Green Credentials Define Fierce Global Scroll and Absorption Chiller Market Competition
The competitive landscape for scroll and absorption chillers market is no longer defined by hardware alone. Market leaders are creating value through integrated digital platforms and aggressive sustainability positioning. Johnson Controls is monetizing data via its OpenBlue platform, with case studies from 2025 quantifying a 67% reduction in chiller maintenance costs for clients. The company’s strategy pivots from equipment sales to a recurring revenue model built on AI-driven energy optimization. Trane Technologies champions sustainability, enforcing a hard deadline of January 1, 2025, for all its commercial chillers to use low-GWP refrigerants like R-454B. Their marketing directly links new chillers to corporate ESG goals by calculating carbon reduction in tons. To mitigate the flammability risks of A2L refrigerants, Trane factory-installs leak detectors on units with charges over 3.91 pounds, turning a safety requirement into a sales feature.
Meanwhile, Daikin Industries leverages its powerful vertical integration. Having sold over 21 million R-32 units globally, Daikin creates a self-sustaining ecosystem of parts and technician expertise. Their 2023 financial results credited expanded R-32 chiller sales in Europe as a key growth driver, proving the success of their focused technology push. Competition now hinges on offering a complete solution: efficient hardware, intelligent software, and a compelling sustainability narrative.
Geopolitical Risks and Reshoring Incentives Forge New Resilient Chiller Supply Chains
Global chiller supply chains are undergoing a fundamental transformation from cost-centric to resilience-focused models. The extreme price volatility of core materials in the scroll and absorption chillers market like Hot-Rolled Coil steel, which averaged $886/ton in 2023 after peaking at over $1,600/ton, has made long-term costing incredibly difficult. Manufacturers now actively hedge commodity prices to maintain stability. Geopolitical factors create further pressure; the global shortage of R-125, a key refrigerant component produced mainly in China, accelerated the industry’s shift away from blended refrigerants toward single-component options like R-32. In response, governments are incentivizing domestic production. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has spurred a 305% increase in clean energy manufacturing investment. Its §45X credit provides direct, per-unit subsidies, giving a clear financial advantage to onshore production of heat pump chillers.
A tangible result of these pressures is a change in product design. Engineering teams are actively redesigning chiller control boards to accept microcontrollers from multiple vendors. A strategy of component flexibility is being implemented to mitigate the impact of future semiconductor shortages. The industry is moving from "just-in-time" to a more robust "just-in-case" operational posture, even at a higher carrying cost.
Regulatory Deadlines and Soaring Refrigerant Costs Force Rapid Chiller Upgrade Cycles
The chiller replacement market in developed nations is now driven by non-negotiable regulatory mandates and punitive operational costs for older equipment in the scroll and absorption chillers market. The U.S. AIM Act created a supply shock by mandating a 40% reduction in HFC production starting January 1, 2024. A consequence is the skyrocketing price of legacy R-410A refrigerant, making major repairs on older units financially unviable. In Europe, the situation is even more acute. The revised F-Gas regulation (EC2024/573) bans new chillers above 12kW using refrigerants with a GWP over 750 starting in 2027. A rule like that makes new R-410A (GWP of 2,088) systems instantly obsolete for future projects. State-level actions are also accelerating the trend.
California's Senate Bill 1206 bans the sale of virgin HFCs with a GWP over 2,200 from January 1, 2025. These regulations create a "forced replacement" scenario. A building owner facing a costly compressor failure on an R-410A unit in 2025 is now strongly compelled to replace the entire system. The calculation shifts from a simple repair cost to the total cost of ownership, factoring in the high price and diminishing availability of obsolete refrigerants.
AI and High-Tech Manufacturing Fuel Unprecedented Demand for Precision Cooling Solutions
Explosive growth in data centers and advanced manufacturing has created a new frontier of demand for high-performance chillers in the scroll and absorption chillers market. The computational needs of Artificial Intelligence are pushing server rack densities to levels where traditional air cooling is ineffective. A fundamental shift to liquid cooling, including direct-to-chip and immersion systems, is underway. These advanced systems are entirely dependent on highly reliable, high-capacity chiller plants to manage the immense heat load. Simultaneously, the global push to localize semiconductor production has triggered a wave of new fabrication plant construction. A semiconductor fab requires thousands of tons of cooling capacity, operating 24/7 with extreme temperature and humidity precision. A
Any deviation can ruin millions of dollars in product. For these critical applications in the scroll and absorption chillers market, uptime and efficiency are the primary purchasing drivers, far outweighing initial capital cost. Absorption chillers are also finding a niche in these environments, where large amounts of waste heat may be available from on-site power generation. The demand from these high-tech sectors is for premium, robust, and often customized cooling solutions, creating a lucrative market for manufacturers capable of meeting such stringent technical requirements.
Segmental Analysis
Absorption Chillers Drive Efficiency in the Chiller Market
Absorption chillers are asserting their dominance in the scroll and absorption chillers market through exceptional energy efficiency and environmental benefits. A key driver is their ability to be powered by waste heat, a resource readily available in many industrial settings. This capability significantly lowers operational costs compared to conventional electric chillers. Models like double-effect chillers boast a Coefficient of Performance (COP) of up to 1.40, while advanced triple-effect units can achieve a remarkable COP of 1.8. The technology's design minimizes reliance on electricity, with power only needed for pumps and controls. This factor helps companies avoid steep peak electric demand charges. Their quiet, vibration-free operation and the use of water as a refrigerant, which has zero global warming potential, further enhance their appeal in an era of strict environmental regulations.
The financial and sustainable advantages make absorption chillers a strategic investment. Their operational lifespan is long, with maintenance primarily involving a simple annual or biannual check of the system's vacuum water quality. The ability of these systems to reduce a facility's carbon dioxide emissions by as much as 57% is a powerful incentive for businesses aiming to meet sustainability targets. The latest models in the scroll and absorption chillers market feature impressive operational flexibility, including a turndown ratio that can go from 100% down to just 10% of the total cooling load, ensuring efficient performance even under varying conditions.
The 100-500 kW Range Is the Market's Versatile Sweet Spot
The 100–500 kW cooling capacity segment stands as the undisputed leader in the global scroll and absorption chillers market, primarily due to its unmatched versatility. This capacity range is perfectly suited for the cooling demands of the most common medium-sized facilities, including commercial office buildings, retail centers, small-scale manufacturing plants, and healthcare clinics. Chillers within this segment provide an optimal balance of capital investment, energy performance, and physical size, making them a practical choice for a broad spectrum of applications. Their inherent flexibility is a major advantage for both new building projects and for retrofitting existing HVAC systems, where they can be adapted to meet specific spatial and power limitations. The widespread production of this capacity range by top manufacturers ensures competitive pricing and technological innovation.
This dominance is reinforced by its suitability for critical and growing sectors. The 100-500 kW range is increasingly specified for cooling the growing number of data centers and for ensuring precise temperature control in hospital environments. In the dynamic global scroll and absorption chillers market, the adaptability of these systems is key. They align perfectly with the requirements for green building certifications and are often designed for modular installation, which allows facility managers to scale their cooling capacity as their needs evolve. Their ability to be integrated into combined cooling and heating systems further boosts their value proposition by maximizing overall energy efficiency.
Steam-Fired Chillers Convert Industrial Byproducts to Savings
Steam-fired systems hold the largest share in the energy source segment of the scroll and absorption chillers market by offering a highly lucrative pathway to energy savings. Their primary advantage is the ability to utilize waste or low-cost steam, a common byproduct in industrial processes, cogeneration plants, and large facilities with central steam infrastructure. By using this readily available thermal energy, businesses can power their cooling systems with minimal electricity, leading to dramatic reductions in utility expenses. A double-effect steam chiller, for instance, operates with an impressive operational cost as low as 3.43 cents/ton-hour and is approximately 30% more efficient than its single-effect counterpart. This efficiency is achieved by cleverly reusing the vapor from the first generator to produce additional cooling.
The economic case for steam-fired chillers is compelling, especially in sectors such as power generation, food processing, and pharmaceuticals where steam is abundant. In the broader global scroll and absorption chillers market, these systems are recognized for their robustness and longevity. Modern units are built with durable materials like stainless steel generator tubes, with some models engineered for up to 8,000 hours of demanding operation. Because they have fewer moving parts than compressor-based systems, maintenance requirements are lower. This combination of turning a waste product into a valuable asset while ensuring reliability and a long service life solidifies the dominance of steam-fired technology.
Commercial Buildings Lead Demand for Efficient Cooling Solutions
Commercial buildings are the foremost consumers in the global scroll and absorption chillers market, driven by immense cooling loads and an intense focus on operational efficiency. In a typical commercial property, HVAC systems are the largest energy consumers, often accounting for 40% to 60% of the total energy bill. Consequently, building owners and facility managers are highly motivated to invest in high-efficiency cooling technologies that can deliver substantial cost savings. Upgrading to an energy-efficient chiller system can reduce a building's energy costs by as much as 20%. This financial incentive is amplified by stringent government regulations and building codes, such as ASHRAE Standard 90.1, which legally mandate minimum levels of energy performance for both new constructions and major renovations.
The push towards sustainability further cements the commercial sector's top position. Green building certifications like LEED are increasingly popular, and they require the use of environmentally friendly systems, including chillers that use low-GWP refrigerants. For the global scroll and absorption chillers market, this trend translates into strong demand. Moreover, factors beyond cost and compliance are crucial. An efficient and well-maintained chiller system enhances indoor air quality, which has been shown to improve occupant comfort and productivity. The quiet operation of modern chillers is another key requirement, particularly in environments like hotels, hospitals, and offices where noise levels must be kept to a minimum.
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Regional Analysis
Asia's Insatiable Data and Industrial Appetite Fuels Unmatched Chiller Demand
The Asia Pacific region's dominance in the global scroll and absorption chillers market with over 47& market share is driven by an unparalleled boom in high-tech infrastructure and manufacturing. In 2024, India's data center stock is projected to exceed 1,300 megawatts, requiring massive cooling investments. Singapore continues its growth with five new data center projects announced in the first half of 2025 alone. China is aggressively expanding its industrial capacity, with over 30 new chemical plant projects initiated that require significant process cooling. The push for technological sovereignty is also a major factor; South Korea has 15 new semiconductor fabrication lines under construction.
Japan is focusing on efficiency, with the government targeting the installation of 600,000 commercial heat pump units by 2030, a program seeing major progress in 2025. Industrial symbiosis is evident as China has mandated over 50 industrial parks to implement waste heat recovery systems, a prime market for absorption chillers. To meet local demand, Daikin, one of the key players in the scroll and absorption chillers market, announced a new 2.5 billion yen investment to expand its chiller production facility in Malaysia. Furthermore, Vietnam’s rapidly growing manufacturing sector has seen approvals for 12 new industrial zones in 2024. Australia's Green Star building certification was awarded to over 200 new commercial projects requiring high-efficiency chillers. Cold chain logistics are expanding, with Thailand planning 10 new large-scale cold storage facilities.
North America's Market Defined by Regulatory Upheaval and Reshoring Initiatives
The North American scroll and absorption chillers market is shaped by a powerful combination of stringent environmental regulations and a strategic manufacturing renaissance. The AIM Act's 40% reduction in HFC production quota for 2024 has caused the price of R-410A refrigerant to exceed $25 per pound in many US markets. A direct result is the accelerated retirement of older equipment. Furthering the technology shift, at least 25 states have now fully adopted building codes that require A2L refrigerant leak detection systems for new installations. The demand from the technology sector is immense; data center alley in Northern Virginia has 15 new campus projects under development.
The reshoring trend is creating concentrated demand pockets. Intel’s new Ohio fabrication plant requires a cooling capacity of over 60,000 tons. The Inflation Reduction Act has directly spurred at least 10 major manufacturing facility announcements for clean energy components. The US government has also allocated over $500 million in grants for HVAC upgrades in public schools and hospitals for fiscal year 2025. In Canada, Toronto has three new district energy network expansions underway. To meet demand, Johnson Controls has reduced the average lead time for its commercial scroll chillers to 14 weeks. Meanwhile, TSMC's Arizona fab will require an estimated 3 billion gallons of water annually for its cooling systems, driving interest in water-efficient chillers.
Europe's Decarbonization Mandate Accelerates a Systemic Shift to Heat Pumps
Europe's scroll and absorption chillers market is being fundamentally reshaped by the world's most aggressive decarbonization policies. The EU's revised F-Gas regulation (EC2024/573) is the primary driver, establishing a near-total ban on fluorinated gases by 2050. A critical near-term deadline is the 2027 prohibition on new chillers above 12kW using refrigerants with a GWP over 750. In Germany, the BAFA subsidy program has been instrumental, processing over 50,000 applications for commercial heat pump installations in 2024. The data center market in the FLAP-D (Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin) hubs continues to grow, with 12 new projects announced for 2025.
Waste heat recovery is a major focus; over 40 industrial sites in the Port of Rotterdam are now part of a heat exchange network, creating opportunities for absorption chillers in the scroll and absorption chillers market. The 2024 HFC quota reduction has led to a price of over €60 per ton of CO2 equivalent on the EU's carbon market, making high-GWP refrigerants economically unviable. France has set a national target to install 300,000 heat pumps in commercial buildings by 2028. The UK has connected over 5,000 buildings to new heat networks in 2024. In Spain, two major new pharmaceutical production facilities have been announced, requiring precise and efficient cooling. Nordic countries continue to lead in district energy, with four major network expansions planned in Denmark and Sweden.
Top Companies in the Scroll And Absorption Chillers Market
Market Segmentation Overview
By Chiller Type
By Cooling Capacity
By Application
By Energy Source (Absorption Chillers)
By End-User
By Region
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